The Twitcher – XQC’S TAKE ON DREAM’S RESPONSE TO THE CHEATING ALLEGATIONS IN MINECRAFT

I’m sorry right now wait wait wait wait want to sync it all right ready at the same time the dream fake is speedrun response dream xd here comes ready i’m ready when you’re ready three two one start it probability probability is the measurement of how likely something is to happen

Recently one of my speedos that i did on twitch has been analyzed by the speedrun.com volunteer mod team and deemed as improbable to a degree that is nearly impossible so lucky in fact that they came to the mathematical conclusion that it had one in 7.5 trillion odds of happening

So they put out a video and a long document talking about it and this is my response van did he’s kind of throwing shades at him by like you know doing the same type of editing thing that’s kind of funny yeah okay these probably actual physicists

Now i’m not sure if you realize how big of a number that is but that is basically impossible you have better odds of winning the lottery three times in a row so ever since this math was done i’ve had people spamming me calling me a cheater and insisting that there’s

Nothing i can possibly say or do to refute the fact that i cheated now every speedrun that i’ve ever uploaded on my youtube channel is still verified and still on the leaderboards including a sixth place run in 1.15 but the run that i did on my twitch on 1.16

Is no longer on it now i plan on going over and detail each of these points later but i want to summarize some misconceptions right at the beginning one the only speedo that was unverified was a fifth place run that i did on a stream a couple months ago

And all of the world record videos that i posted are still verified one of the mods said quote we have no reason to believe that any of the 1.15 runs are cheated two the odds are wrong i hired a professional statistician with a phd that is an active astrophysicist to

Write an analysis and i’ll be going over parts of that analysis today three really i did not delete any evidence and i was doing everything i was asked to buy the mods and i actually have one of the mods on later to come and confirm that and four

Not all of my 1.16 live streams were used for the data only the six luckiest ones were i had five other streams before those streams i did on 1.16 but they had below average luck and were not included in their analysis i had the expert include these streams in a much smaller

Separate analysis which concluded that with these 11 streams included the data shows quote no statistically significant evidence that dream was modifying the probabilities so now that we got the misconceptions out of the way which i will go over later the math i’m not that good at math and

I’m sure a lot of you watching this may not be either so i found somebody who is amazing at math and specializes in probability to help get to the bottom of it bill nye the science guy really heard me right okay i’m just kidding that that’s a joke that’s a joke

A professor with a phd that graduated from harvard that’s actually a practicing astrophysicist that is an expert in statistics and it’s a great it’s a great name for me reaching out to this expert he insists that if he was going to do this analysis that i must agree to release his

Findings regardless of if they made me look good or they made me look bad knowing that i’m innocent i agreed the mod team is a group of respectable people but they’re also young and a group of volunteers so it’s hard to fault them for making mistakes when compared to a full-time professional

With a specific expertise in a field like this after extensive research into the mods math and the logic and reasoning behind this math the expert found that the math was off This font you know she’s about to get real when they use this font right the description of this video there’s a link to a 19-page report written by this expert that is extremely detailed into exactly what they got wrong and why i won’t be going over it entirely in this

Video for people more interested in the math it’s linked in the description i will be going over what i think are the most important parts though first of all the math was off by at least 7.4998 trillion and the original number was 7.5 trillion and like i mentioned earlier this is a huge

Number so it’s also a huge number to be off by on the screen right now is a representation of how far they were off by again i’m sure the mods did their best but when talking about someone’s character and their image making mistakes as big as this can be

Really damaging after coming to an estimate of a new probability the expert said this quote even in the worst case the probabilities are not so extreme as to rule out any chance that dream used the unmodified probabilities the expert also said quote if you ask what is the probability

That anyone playing minecraft has luck as good as dream did i believe in streams then the odds are very high dream’s luck can be described not in terms of unusual success in the game but that out of all of the minecraft players it was him who got this lucky

And he got this lucky while livestreaming but remember this could not be counted against him because he was investigated precisely because he got very lucky i actually ran a survey where i gave 100 random people two options on what the number they talked about meant

Option one the odds of a top 1000 speed owner on video or stream getting the luck that i got or option two the odds of anyone doing piglet trades in minecraft getting the luck that i got every single person out of the 100 said option two they

And probably you watching this based on the survey figured that the mods presented the odds of this happening to anyone while trading with piglets they didn’t think that this was the odds of this happening to someone while speedrunning being a top 1000 speed runner on stream or video

As a good example pick a number between one and ten go ahead right now pause seven number between one and ten you had a ten percent chance of picking the number seven just then two now out of the way millions of people watching this there’s probably quite a lot of you that picked

That number but there may only be a few thousand that are recording but also pick the number seven and there may even be fewer of you that were doing a reaction to this or alive and also pick the number seven that doesn’t change the odds of you picking

The number seven it’s still about ten percent but the odds of you being live in picking the number seven now we’re talking about zero point zero zero zero one percent or somewhere now you can see why it might be misleading to say streamer had zero point zero zero zero

One percent of getting this lucky even though it’s technically true but it doesn’t change the fact that you had a 10 chance of getting that number regardless if you were streaming or not in the words of the professor that wrote the document quote extremely low probability events happen at random all the time

If you consider for example every minecraft player then a perfect run two out of two ender pearl trades and seven out of seven blaze raw drops probably occurs multiple times an hour considering all minecraft worlds ever played and the multitude of ways in which luck plays a role

Even one in a trillion events happen daily but that’s not even getting into their actual math that’s just about how they presented it the first thing that’s wrong is that they did not correctly account for trade stopping basically when you trade with a piglen you trade until you reach enough ender pearls to

Then leave and go to the stronghold when you get enough ender pearls you immediately stop trading and leave other uncompleted trades this is a quote from the experts report quote if the last barter in a sequence is always an ender pearl because then the speedo leaves then it simply cannot

Be claimed that all barters are fully independent and identical without identical independent barters the binomial model is inappropriate in order to prove that the trade stopping was important the expert ran a simulation over a million times that shows that his model is far more accurate to how trading actually works

Than the model used in the report margin larger stopping simulation does indeed show that there are fewer barters required to get the desired number of ender pearls if you end immediately after an ender pearl barter it also helps explain why charts showing dreams bartering outcomes seem unbalanced with respect to ender pearls

They don’t account for the fact that ender pearls are special because they are the goal of bartering accounting for this problem makes the odds extremely more likely the expert says that quote this model has objectively a higher fidelity and thus a more accurate estimate of dream’s odds however another thing that’s been

Used against me is that when comparing this lucky streak to illumina or another popular runner my streak of runs looks much luckier than say a streak of lucky runs they had again here’s another quote from the document from the expert quote the low probability of dreams runs and

That dream performed much better than other speedrunners should not be considered as independent pieces of evidence they both indicate the same thing any lucky speed owner chosen because they look lucky will look lucky when compared to other speed runners not to mention that a lot of speed runners run constantly offline

Including a lot of the time sometimes and these runs are verified despite not being able to look into their rng at all if you’re using one single aberration another thing they biased everything in my favor and that the number they came up with was the lowest possible probability in my favor

One thing that they mentioned in their investigation is that they came up with the number 10 for the number of potential targets for a cheater to change they also said that this was a generous exaggeration as they could only think of a few this confused me so i asked them for a list

When i asked for the list of the 10 that they were referring to they were unable to provide one and they inferred that it was arbitrarily chosen so i decided to come up with a list myself of all the possible targets that a cheater would try and cheat in speedrunning that have

Similar importance to blaze rods i was able to come up with a detailed list of 37 different rng targets that i believed were very comparable to blaze rods i shared this list with a few speedrunning experts including illumina and bennex and they seem to agree that the 37i listed were fair and

Incredibly more accurate than the random number 10 that there was before this was actually a recurring theme throughout the dollar yeah pearl’s on the biggest run that number was the most favorable number possible for me and then use it in calculations guys even though i agree with this uh

The thing is is that pearls are by far the biggest run killers run kill run killers are uh not finding a fortress then not getting pearls these are the biggest hills by launch by a long shot yes there are other like other rankings like not finding lava or not fighting

This but that’s like if the margin is too big i think to disregard it okay three two one was the best possible number in my favor was so far from it that it usually was actually the worst possible number against me another example of this is that they claimed that the formula they

Used would find the lowest possible odds in my favor but the expert tested their formula on their own example of coin flips and found that their lower bound or what they claimed to be the lowest possible odds in my favor were actually twice as high as the

Actual odds of a coin flip street meaning the formula they used was extremely flawed against me and it only gets more flawed when talking about lower probabilities in the report the expert says quote the claim that the p-values given in the msd report are as favorable as possible is

Not supported by our investigation the biggest problem that i have with this is that the way that the mods document was written and presented in the video made me look as guilty as possible while also putting into the watcher’s mind that not only are these numbers right

But they are the best possible scenario for me even the numbers that the expert came up with are not the best possible scenario for me and they are already way less than what the mods put obviously the way that they phrased it makes me look really guilty and it was something that they

Didn’t even need to do because the numbers looked bad already one thing that he says at the beginning that i think is notable in his report is that he says quote probability calculations are hard there may not be one right way to do something it is easy to violate some hidden or unknown

Assumption what i take away from this is that when talking about a series of events and trying to calculate the probability of them happening it’s really complicated and different methods are constantly debated in statistics and that’s the reason why a lot of times statistics are thrown out in actual

Court because they can be misleading and lead to false convictions off of faulty statistics even on accident probability is extremely complicated and there are tens of thousands of things that you have to take into account when coming up with an accurate representation of probability especially on a non-random sample

Although the analysis done by the expert shows that the odds are much lower than the odds of the mods presented this was done in about a week and i’m sure that there’s a lot of other ways that the data can be interpreted and corrected to make it even more accurate the expert

Even mentioned at the end of the document there are possible corrections that can be applied that would reasonably bring the number down to one in a million or even lower as much as i would love to debate math and statistics for the next two years i’d rather just say

Hey here’s what an expert said take it as you will on top of everything i’ve said so far numbers can be really misleading as an example when you create a minecraft world that world has a random number created with it the seed that random number determines how your

Minecraft world looks that means that each different minecraft world you’ve created had a 1 in 281 trillion chance of being that world it gets even crazier when you start to combine the odds together if you created two minecraft worlds the odds of you getting the first world

And then the second world are so low that you cannot even calculate them on 99 of calculators yet you obviously did get those two worlds in a row no one can tell you otherwise but again that’s misleading but it’s still true each individual seed has no significant importance and you’re going to get

A minecraft world no matter what so it’s actually not that significant but the way that i phrased it made it seem significant because of how rare it is another different way that odds can be misleading is with the lottery the odds of you winning the lottery may be 1 in

100 million but with 100 million people buying lottery tickets someone probably won and surprisingly there’s actually far more players that play minecraft than that play the lottery you can compare this directly to minecraft speedrunning because with 100 million people playing minecraft tens of millions of people doing millions of piglet trades someone will

Be the luckiest player in minecraft and someone will be the unluckiest player in minecraft might be you who knows but the chances are that there are probably thousands of players that have experienced one in one hundred million or more without even realizing it’s a depiction now that we’ve established that numbers

Can be used the language wrong with their analysis according to a statistical expert i want to move a little bit off the numbers let’s talk a little bit about the video in geosquare’s video he says this we have stream for his mods folder specifically so we could check for any modification

But he was unable to provide any evidence since he says he deletes the contents of his mods folder pretty regularly that obviously makes me seem very suspicious except for the fact that i didn’t ever say that i provided the mods with every file they ever asked for

And i never said that i regularly delete the contents of my mod folder actually the verification team was disorganized and never even asked me anything involving my mod folder until 10 days after the investigation started they asked me if i had changed it since then and i said of course because almost

Everyone changes their mods depending on what version they’re using they asked me for a list of the mods i used and i provided a list i did mention at another time that i had deleted specifically my 1.16 mod config folder because i didn’t plan on speed running 1.16 anymore but it was

Completely unrelated and it was after the mods had already said that they didn’t need the folder and that a list of the mods would suffice geosquare admitted this mistake and added a small correction in the description but i feel like that was a much bigger mistake than he made it out

To be how many people actually would have read the description and seen this correction at this point millions of people had already heard this mistake and were unlikely this is and will never hear this response so i decided to ask one of the official speeder and mods to come on my video and

Clarify this is wills one of the official speedrun moderators as a moderator who has done 99 of the communication between dream i can confirm there’s absolutely no hesitation to provide us what was needed and dream was never uncooperative during the investigation process as far as we know

So past that there’s really only three major ways that you can modify your minecraft to increase your luck you can do it with a data pack you can do it with a mod you can do it by editing your version’s jar file shortly after my stream ended the day

That i had my good run i actually uploaded my world file to google drive almost immediately you can see when it was uploaded and you can see when any of the files within it were edited this is all in the metadata of the file this folder contains the data packs folder

And also contains the startup logs that show what mods are loaded within the datapacks folder you can confirm that there’s no data packs and that no datapacks were deleted because it was not modified after the world was created you can also see in the startup logs that the only two mods loaded were

Allowed mods that there were no custom mods loaded i don’t expect you to trust me on this blindly so i actually put the link and a tutorial to download it and how to see it for yourself in the description on top of that i was also able to upload

My jar file that has been untouched both with modification dates showing that they were not changed or deleted after the run now the mods never asked me for this file so i only upload it recently but the modification dates are still there with this it can be shown that i almost

Definitely did not modify the game in any it’s using a machine touch although of course it’s never impossible and you can always find a way to do something if you want to the most obvious ways to do this were those so the first thing that i want to say

Before going into more specific subjects is to please not send hate to anyone involved i already apologized on twitter because i had said some rude things to the mods after the video was released and i really don’t want to send hate to anybody i responded incredibly immaturely at first because i was angry

And i really do regret my response but i would think that the average person being falsely publicly accused might react in a similar way i don’t know i’m very competitive so being called the cheater just really set me off at first but now that that’s out of the way in

The video they used the logs that i mentioned before to show that i had fabric api loaded but they didn’t mention that it showed that nothing else was loaded they also alluded to the fact that i’m suspicious because i used fabric a mod loader but fabric is used by more than half of

All of the top runners on the leaderboard i would have much preferred using optifine where you can’t use mods and i did until they banned optifine from speedruns and told people to use fabric instead so i switched to fabric because i had to and then i was called suspicious because of it

You can actually tell that i would have preferred to stay on optifine because i ran 1.15 live shortly after these runs where you can actually use optifine and i was using optifine not fabric matter of fact in one of those 1.15 runs during that stream i almost broke the world record on a

Version that doesn’t have piglet trades and also on a client that doesn’t have an option to add mods so i don’t think that the way this was phrased in the video is a fair way to put it but another thing is that geosquare said in the video that fabric api was a mod

Creation tool the fabric api a mod creation tool which is just extremely misleading it’s a required mod for almost every single mod in fabric so much so that a lot of people think that you need it for every mod and i was actually asked by the mods if i thought that

But they didn’t mention that in the video and yet again they use this to make me look suspicious he also uses the logs and shows them on screen as proof that i had fabric api loaded but again he doesn’t mention that it doesn’t show any other sure and that’s called cherry picking using

The facts that support your claim as evidence but ignoring any facts that go against your claim if they were being completely fair he should have presented the fact that this log showed that there was no other mods but it would weaken their argument so they didn’t mention it and this is a

Recurring theme throughout the video he says a lot of things that might be partially true but says them in a very misleading way that would make a reasonable person think that i look guilty i’m sure there’s a chance that one of you or your friends saw that video and went

Wow dream deleted evidence because he’s guilty and that’s my biggest problem with the way that they handled this i don’t blame them that much because they’re a team of volunteers mostly especially when you’re younger including me but when you’re calling into question someone’s character you really have to be careful what you say

The official owners and admins of speedrun.com which run the leaderboard made a statement that the video was quote lacking in the level of objectivity we hope to see around communications by the game moderation team to the community which i completely agree with i wish that the mods would

Have remained more neutral and just presented the facts because that’s their job as moderators and i just want to say here that at this point i don’t care if my run is verified and i’m not resubmitting or appealing the fact that it wasn’t as much as i may disagree with

It i’ve never really cared too much about leaderboards and i wasn’t even planning on submitting any 1.16 runs because i was just playing for practice and for fun i was streaming because i was like one point regardless of the fact that the 7.5 trillion odds are incorrect i still had

A very lucky streak something you probably wouldn’t expect to see in a small community like speedrunning you would expect to see it in minecraft overall but it’s much less likely to happen during a speed run so for that reason i understand completely why the mods were skeptical

And i respect to their decision not to verify the run i’m upset that the video was made and how it was made and that there’s a lot of people that will probably believe that i cheated and never get to see this video countering it but i don’t believe that the mods were being

Intentionally malicious i believe that the reason this was handled poorly can just be attributed to the fact that i have a huge channel and they’re not used to dealing with that so i was muted this whole time hello now that i’ve pretty much talked about proving every possible way that i can

About why i didn’t cheat i want to talk about something a little bit more serious which is just related to bias and again even though i’m expressing this i don’t want to send any hate to anybody and i believe that the mod team is full of very respectable honest people but

I made some claims early on that i felt targeted and that i thought that the mod team was biased and a lot of people were upset with that because they couldn’t see how they could be biased i just want to share my point of view because from my perspective maybe you

Can understand why i reacted the way that i did first of all the speedrun.com minecraft bedrock edition team which is a similar team to the one who worked on this but for bedrock edition completely banned me from ever submitting an official run well before this happened without giving a single reason why

Other than that they don’t like me and i have never even played minecraft better i’ve done that single speed run on that game but i’m still banned and i have yet to be told why obviously this didn’t give me as much confidence in their sister team java edition giving me fair treatment however

I don’t think that the actions of the bedrock team reflect on the intentions of the java team another thing though is that while the mods were looking into my 1.16 run a lot of the official speedrun verifiers were saying incredibly disrespectful things about me about my fans and essentially harassing me which obviously

Led to me saying some things that i regret saying but i’m sure that anyone could understand why that would be frustrating before all this i tried to be extremely friendly with the mod team and i helped them catch many cheaters there was actually a point a few months

Ago where i was in a call with a bunch of them doing basically a powerpoint presentation with proof that the world loading screen can prove one of the top runs is fake and that run ended up getting unverified because of it so i’m definitely no opponent to getting rid of cheaters from

Leaderboards and i do my best to help where i can but during the investigation i had my doubts about the way that the investigation is on my homies and i was really stressed about it because i was almost completely left in the dark and i didn’t know what was happening

And everything that i did here didn’t really make me feel super optimistic about them doing a good job one of the mods who asked me not to name them frequently said things that led to me having doubts about the investigation quote everyone was still discussing whether the decision was right

10 minutes before the video was published and also quote they were just yelling at each other to finish faster that same mod told me after the results released quote for the record i don’t believe at all that you cheated and also quote i’m probably going to be quitting the

Mod team because of this they’re only about 10 or so active moderators i just want to talk to tradition as far as i’m aware and this was one of them and i’m sure that anyone could understand why it would be reasonable to doubt the decision

If i’m being told this by one of the moderators i really worried about what was going on behind the scenes because of this and this is what the expert and what it is but it’s definitely important to how the math is interpreted if the mod team was

Biased against me they would be more likely to make mistakes against me like misquoting me or using incorrect formulas because the small details wouldn’t matter as much to them even if they wouldn’t do it on purpose which i’m sure they wouldn’t as much as that sucks for

Me and i wish that some members in the speedrun community looked at me differently it is what it is before this whole thing went down i had a lot of respect for the mod team and i really hope that even though i’m not happy right now i can regain all of that

Respect for them and i hope that the same goes for me because i said some dumb things too because the community is an amazing place and like i said it’s not like they’re intentionally trying to sabotage my career or something i mean they didn’t ban me or remove any of my other

Runs or do anything super unreasonable out of bias like the bedrock mod team did i think if they had removed my other runs or banned me that would have been very biased but i don’t think that what they actually did was biased okay listen guys listen i

Thought about this okay and i analyzed one of my own runs because i i just wanted to and i realized that uh on stream sometimes there’s a lot of things that could be mathematically improbable such as if you think about it even a good run right starting with a village getting um

Getting a good uh flint getting a good pool getting a good nether good gold good trades fortress out a good seed for your uh end thing the pearls being in the portal it’s still [ __ ] insane like if you put if you put it in data all the luck of a

Decent run on stream it it still is absolutely astronomical the number right okay three two one start after reading the document myself i was surprised and it seemed like a very good job the only reason i was insisted on the math being wrong is because i know

That i didn’t cheat and i also know that 7.5 trillion is just too unlikely to be reasonable if i didn’t cheat so i could assume that the math was off again i don’t care at all about my speed run i care more about defending my character than defending a dumb

Leaderboard position when i joined minecraft speedrunning i didn’t even submit any of my runs and it wasn’t until i saw some comments telling me that i should that i ended up doing it i was mostly practicing for manhunt because i wanted to try and challenge myself even more

Now matthew which is the most qualified speedrun mod who wrote a lot of the paper said in the discord chat after the video was uploaded quote look at where stream did mild cheat at block game fast make of that what you will obviously i don’t agree with that

Because i think that cheap game but i just don’t think that the mods realized that to me it’s much deeper than a leaderboard position i have an amazing community and an amazing group of fans and i don’t need to officially speedrun i i do it because i like it and it’s fun

I get less viewers on my record videos than i do on my normal videos and i get less views on my speedrun twitch streams than my normal twitch streams i also didn’t even upload a single one of the speedruns that were investigated onto any of my channels

Not even highlights or anything so again to me i care much more about my character than a leaderboard or any kind of benefit i could get from speedrunning one of the last things that i want to mention is a quote from one of the minecraft developers

Quote just going off of chances is quite dumb also quote a lot of speedrunning minecraft is rng or at least speedrunning until you get good rng then he went on to say quote they really should consider a better process like you can force speedrunners to stream with some anti-cheat mod or something

And this is actually something that i’ve suggested many times and a long time ago i even offered to try and help come up with ideas for it but as the speedrun mods are volunteers and don’t get paid it would be really hard to find a developer to do it so

As much as i could suggest it they never were able to do it you may have noticed that this video has monetization on and that’s for a reason i’m going to be taking every dollar made from this video and donating it to the mods in order for them to develop a speedrunning client

That way there will be less cheaters and if you get really lucky you’re not going to get accused for it even though i don’t have any plans to speedrun for the leaderboards in the future i still love the community and i think that’s why i want to do that thing

For the street only community so i’m looking forward to see what happens as a final closing note if despite all the evidence that i’ve presented you still believe that the odds are too low i want to mention a couple things from the report one the expert that wrote the report

Says that he quote disagrees that the situation suggests that cheating is an unavoidable conclusion and two that the probability presented is not the probability that i’m innocent it is just the probability of a rare event happening under specific circumstances and the expert says that in order to find a correct probability

Of me changing the drop rates quote external evidence that the probabilities were modified at this specific point would be needed to produce a significant probability of cheating essentially the fact that something unlikely happened shouldn’t be the only evidence to back up an accusation but i think that’s all i have to say

Thank you if you listen to the whole thing i love it i encourage you to like this video that way it has a higher chance of getting put into the algorithm so more people see it generally accusations are seen much more than the responses to those accusations i just wish

As christians talking about this this video outlined what point we’re on and we’re talking about and what is being disproved or talked about and then addressing next bite next bite next bite and going bite by bite because at some point like i know the videos like dude holy [ __ ] so much data and

What is happening what are we talking about dude and it’s what the other video did well on and i think that’s why they got so much traction because the other video did exactly that they took a bite explained it onto the next bite explain and that that’s why i probably

Got so much traction yes i think the accusation video was too well edited too well edited uh and i i mean there’s nothing i don’t know i still have a conclusion just because it’s whatever dude uh honestly dude i think speedrunning as a whole is kind of

Flawed a lot of people can upload runs that it didn’t stream right can they can they do that uh live people’s runs looked [ __ ] insane they could have done officer whatever i think that’s kind of weird you